Summary for the 5th of April 2019


The US president, Donald Trump, said yesterday that a trade deal between the US and China would be reached in four weeks. He said that many of the main issues had been agreed.

As mentioned in the last two previous posts, Liu He is in Washington and have been in talk with Robert Lighthizer and Steven Mnuchin. The talk started on Wednesday and will be continued today.
Trump said that the deal should be ready in four weeks, maybe a couple more additional weeks for the drawn up of paperwork. He also said that there were still differences that needed to be bridged.

Germany’s factory order fell by 4.2% from January to February. The market was expecting an increase of 0.3%. The decline for the last two months had led the factory orders to the lowest level in two years (paywall). The decline was from difference countries and sectors , export orders were weaker than domestic orders, especially orders from countries outside the Eurozone. Orders on automobiles fell sharply in last summer, then picked up through autumn, fell again and were in February the same level as in last summer.

The ECB accounts from the monetary policy meeting of 6th to 7th of March showed that some of the members in the council were worried about how the prolonged negative interest rates would affect bank’s profitability and the financial stability. The worries came after the ECB’s decision to keep the interest rates unchanged throughout 2019, and not just to the summer as previously decided. Most of the members expressed caution about committing the monetary policy to a long horizon. Mario Draghi mentioned the possibility of a system where banks could deposit up to a certain quota for zero interest rate, deposits that exceeds this quota would be placed for a negative interest rate.

Indices for 5th of April. 
Dow: +0.6% (4th of April)
S&P 500: +0.2% (4th of April)
Nasdaq: -0.1% (4th of April)
Nikkei: +0.3% (5th of April)
Chinese indices: Closed (5th of April)
STOXX Europe 600 Index: +0.09% (5th of April)

This post is sponsored by my video course in Portfolio Analysis, check it out if you are interested:
Quick and Easy Portfolio Analysis Video Course  (Skillshare)
Quick and Easy Portfolio AnalysisVideo Course  (Udemy)
and Facebook page for other information:
Quick&Easy Financial Economics

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Summary for the 2nd of October -Weaker manufacturing outlook

Last week’s flash PMI estimates for the EU area and yesterday’ final PMI numbers are indicating that the weakening in the manufacturing sector isn’t country specific, but rather the weakening is across countries. The decline in Germany’s manufacturing sector is less than expected by the financial markets, while the decline in France is higher than expected. The same goes for Spain and Italy. The UK’s PMI index has increased by 0.9 to 48.3 and is more than expected, though 48.3 still indicates a weaker outlook. The US Manufacturing PMI has increased to 51.1 while the ISM index declines by 1.3 percent to 47.8, the lowest value since 2009. Despite weakening activities in the manufacturing sector for the developed countries, for the developing countries the outlook is still positive. The global PMI value in the manufacturing sector has risen from August to September. Past months’ decline has been due to weaker growth in the global trade. The WTO has updated its global trade forecast ...
Read more

Summary for the 15th of October

China’s balance of trade shows a fall in exports by 3.2 percent, comparing to a year ago and the imports fall by 8.5 percent, the first fall since May this year. China is the largest contributor to world economic growth, through the weaker imports, China’s economic decline is affecting the rest of the world economy, such as the Euro area. The Euro area’s industrial production for  August has risen by a little more than the markets have expected. The industrial production in the Euro area has been weakening since the start of 2018. Finland is currently holding the council of the EU presidency. At a press conference with the European Council President elect, Charles Michel, the Finnish prime minister, Antti Rinne, says that The EU needs more time to reach a Brexit agreement. Boris Johnson is hoping to seal a Brexit deal before the EU summit on Thursday, so that he will be able to present it to the British Parliament on Saturday for approval, in doing so, he won’t need to postpo...
Read more

Summary for the 21st of October Brexit drama

On Saturday, the British parliament is withholding the final decision of the revised Brexit deal and forcing Boris Johnson to ask the European Council for an extension to the 31 st of January. Instead the parliament has greed on Oliver Letwin’ amendment, which states that there wont be a no deal Brexit until the parliament has agreed on the revised Brexit deal this week. And on Saturday night, Boris Johnson has sent an unsigned letter to the European Council asking for a Brexit delay as well as a personal letter to the Council asking the EU leaders not to delay Brexit. The US stock exchange has closed in negative on Friday after Johnson & Johnson has to recall 33 000 bottles of baby powder in the US after health regulators found trace amounts of asbestos in a bottle purchased online. Boeing has admitted that two of its employers in 2016 misled the FAA about the 737 Max and its technical system. Weaker than expected Chinese economic indicators also contributes to the negative...
Read more