Summary for the 22nd of February 2019


The EU Area Composite PMI increased in February from previous month after it has been on a downward trend through 2018, though the PMI index for the manufacturing sector fell for the first time since 2013, to the value of under 50. The PMI index for the services sector increased by 1.1 to the value of 52.2.

For the manufacturing sector, the fall was strongest in Germany, which fell by 2 points, but the services sector in Germany also increased by as much. The French manufacturing sector was unchanged.

Even though the EU Area Composite PMI rose in February, it is still early to tell if the downward trend for the economic activity in the EU is over.

The US president, Donald Trump, is meeting with Vice Premier of China, Liu He, today for trade talk. From the survey conducted by Bloomberg, none of the 29 China-watching analysts believes that the US will increase tariffs on Chinese goods on 1st of March. 18 of the 29 analysts believe the tariff will increase ultimately.

The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts from the meeting held in Frankfurt on 23rd-24th of January shows that there were concerns among the ECB members about increasing impact of the trade conflicts on the global outlook over time. The ECB had adjusted the risks assessment from balanced to a downside. The chief economist of the European central bank, Peter Praet, was signaling that, the ECB would be considering another round of TLTRO at the next ECB meeting on the 7th of March. The Accounts also perceived the risks surrounding the Brexit as acute.

The US durable goods orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.7 percent in December. New orders for US manufactured durable goods excluding transportation increased by 0.1% in December from November. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index declined to -4.1 in February from the value of 17 in January. The existing home sales fell by -1.2% in January, but the -6.4% in December got revised up to -4%, giving the total of December and January a better number than expected. The only positive number is the initial jobless claims that declined to 216 000, after it has been around 240 000 for three weeks.

Indices on the 22nd of February: Weaker than expected economics indicators from Asia, Europe and the US and together with no news from the trade talks have led to the stock markets closed in negative.
Dow: -0.4% (21st of February )
S&P 500: -0.4% (21st of February)
Nasdaq: -0.4% (21st of February)
Nikkei: -0.2%  (22nd of February)
Chinese indices: +1.4% (22nd  of February)
STOXX Europe 600 Index: +0.22% (22nd of February)

This post is sponsored by my video course in Portfolio Analysis, check it out if you are interested:
Quick and Easy Portfolio Analysis Video Course  (Skillshare)
Quick and Easy Portfolio AnalysisVideo Course  (Udemy)
and Facebook page for other information:
Quick&Easy Finance


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Summary for the 2nd of October -Weaker manufacturing outlook

Last week’s flash PMI estimates for the EU area and yesterday’ final PMI numbers are indicating that the weakening in the manufacturing sector isn’t country specific, but rather the weakening is across countries. The decline in Germany’s manufacturing sector is less than expected by the financial markets, while the decline in France is higher than expected. The same goes for Spain and Italy. The UK’s PMI index has increased by 0.9 to 48.3 and is more than expected, though 48.3 still indicates a weaker outlook. The US Manufacturing PMI has increased to 51.1 while the ISM index declines by 1.3 percent to 47.8, the lowest value since 2009. Despite weakening activities in the manufacturing sector for the developed countries, for the developing countries the outlook is still positive. The global PMI value in the manufacturing sector has risen from August to September. Past months’ decline has been due to weaker growth in the global trade. The WTO has updated its global trade forecast ...
Read more

Summary for the 15th of October

China’s balance of trade shows a fall in exports by 3.2 percent, comparing to a year ago and the imports fall by 8.5 percent, the first fall since May this year. China is the largest contributor to world economic growth, through the weaker imports, China’s economic decline is affecting the rest of the world economy, such as the Euro area. The Euro area’s industrial production for  August has risen by a little more than the markets have expected. The industrial production in the Euro area has been weakening since the start of 2018. Finland is currently holding the council of the EU presidency. At a press conference with the European Council President elect, Charles Michel, the Finnish prime minister, Antti Rinne, says that The EU needs more time to reach a Brexit agreement. Boris Johnson is hoping to seal a Brexit deal before the EU summit on Thursday, so that he will be able to present it to the British Parliament on Saturday for approval, in doing so, he won’t need to postpo...
Read more

Summary for the 21st of October Brexit drama

On Saturday, the British parliament is withholding the final decision of the revised Brexit deal and forcing Boris Johnson to ask the European Council for an extension to the 31 st of January. Instead the parliament has greed on Oliver Letwin’ amendment, which states that there wont be a no deal Brexit until the parliament has agreed on the revised Brexit deal this week. And on Saturday night, Boris Johnson has sent an unsigned letter to the European Council asking for a Brexit delay as well as a personal letter to the Council asking the EU leaders not to delay Brexit. The US stock exchange has closed in negative on Friday after Johnson & Johnson has to recall 33 000 bottles of baby powder in the US after health regulators found trace amounts of asbestos in a bottle purchased online. Boeing has admitted that two of its employers in 2016 misled the FAA about the 737 Max and its technical system. Weaker than expected Chinese economic indicators also contributes to the negative...
Read more