Summary for the 21st of January 2019


China published its GDP numbers today. GDP numbers for the fourth quarter comes in as 6.4%, year over year. For 2018 as a whole, the GDP is 6.6%, down from a revised growth of 6.8% in 2017. This is the weakest GDP growth from China since 1990. The growth in exports is down from 6% for the third quarter, year over year to 2.1% in the fourth quarter. This is due to the trade conflict with the US and slow growth from the global economy. Domestic demand declines due to a weaker growth in the real estate market. China’s industrial production is 5.7% in the fourth quarter, year over year, down from 6% in the third quarter. Retails sales comes in as 6% in the fourth quarter, down from 6.5% in the third quarter.

The Chinese government has already stepped in to stop further decline in growth. It has reduced the capital requirements from banks, tax relief and approving several construction and infrastructure projects. The stock markets in Asia didn’t seem to be affected by these numbers, and they ended up in positive at market close.

The British prime minister, Theresa May is revealing the plan B of Brexit today. The original plan was downvoted last week with one of the key reasons being the backstop plan with Ireland.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is giving an update on the World Economic Forum 2019 that will be starting tomorrow in Davos. Due to the US government shutdown, President Trump won’t be joining the Forum this year. Theresa May will not be attending neither, due to her engagement with Brexit issues.

Indices on 18th and 21st  of January.
Dow: +1.4% (18th )
S&P 500: +1.3% (18th )
Nasdaq:+ 1.0% (18th )
Nikkei: +0.3% (21st )
Chinese indices: +0.5% (21st )
US stock market is closed today to mark the birthday of Martin Luther King Jr.

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