Summary for the 21st of January 2019


China published its GDP numbers today. GDP numbers for the fourth quarter comes in as 6.4%, year over year. For 2018 as a whole, the GDP is 6.6%, down from a revised growth of 6.8% in 2017. This is the weakest GDP growth from China since 1990. The growth in exports is down from 6% for the third quarter, year over year to 2.1% in the fourth quarter. This is due to the trade conflict with the US and slow growth from the global economy. Domestic demand declines due to a weaker growth in the real estate market. China’s industrial production is 5.7% in the fourth quarter, year over year, down from 6% in the third quarter. Retails sales comes in as 6% in the fourth quarter, down from 6.5% in the third quarter.

The Chinese government has already stepped in to stop further decline in growth. It has reduced the capital requirements from banks, tax relief and approving several construction and infrastructure projects. The stock markets in Asia didn’t seem to be affected by these numbers, and they ended up in positive at market close.

The British prime minister, Theresa May is revealing the plan B of Brexit today. The original plan was downvoted last week with one of the key reasons being the backstop plan with Ireland.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is giving an update on the World Economic Forum 2019 that will be starting tomorrow in Davos. Due to the US government shutdown, President Trump won’t be joining the Forum this year. Theresa May will not be attending neither, due to her engagement with Brexit issues.

Indices on 18th and 21st  of January.
Dow: +1.4% (18th )
S&P 500: +1.3% (18th )
Nasdaq:+ 1.0% (18th )
Nikkei: +0.3% (21st )
Chinese indices: +0.5% (21st )
US stock market is closed today to mark the birthday of Martin Luther King Jr.

If you are looking for a course in finance, check out my video course in Portfolio Analysis:

Quick and Easy Portfolio Analysis Video Course

and Facebook page for other information:

Quick&Easy Finance


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Summary for the 2nd of October -Weaker manufacturing outlook

Last week’s flash PMI estimates for the EU area and yesterday’ final PMI numbers are indicating that the weakening in the manufacturing sector isn’t country specific, but rather the weakening is across countries. The decline in Germany’s manufacturing sector is less than expected by the financial markets, while the decline in France is higher than expected. The same goes for Spain and Italy. The UK’s PMI index has increased by 0.9 to 48.3 and is more than expected, though 48.3 still indicates a weaker outlook. The US Manufacturing PMI has increased to 51.1 while the ISM index declines by 1.3 percent to 47.8, the lowest value since 2009. Despite weakening activities in the manufacturing sector for the developed countries, for the developing countries the outlook is still positive. The global PMI value in the manufacturing sector has risen from August to September. Past months’ decline has been due to weaker growth in the global trade. The WTO has updated its global trade forecast ...
Read more

Summary for the 15th of October

China’s balance of trade shows a fall in exports by 3.2 percent, comparing to a year ago and the imports fall by 8.5 percent, the first fall since May this year. China is the largest contributor to world economic growth, through the weaker imports, China’s economic decline is affecting the rest of the world economy, such as the Euro area. The Euro area’s industrial production for  August has risen by a little more than the markets have expected. The industrial production in the Euro area has been weakening since the start of 2018. Finland is currently holding the council of the EU presidency. At a press conference with the European Council President elect, Charles Michel, the Finnish prime minister, Antti Rinne, says that The EU needs more time to reach a Brexit agreement. Boris Johnson is hoping to seal a Brexit deal before the EU summit on Thursday, so that he will be able to present it to the British Parliament on Saturday for approval, in doing so, he won’t need to postpo...
Read more

Summary for the 21st of October Brexit drama

On Saturday, the British parliament is withholding the final decision of the revised Brexit deal and forcing Boris Johnson to ask the European Council for an extension to the 31 st of January. Instead the parliament has greed on Oliver Letwin’ amendment, which states that there wont be a no deal Brexit until the parliament has agreed on the revised Brexit deal this week. And on Saturday night, Boris Johnson has sent an unsigned letter to the European Council asking for a Brexit delay as well as a personal letter to the Council asking the EU leaders not to delay Brexit. The US stock exchange has closed in negative on Friday after Johnson & Johnson has to recall 33 000 bottles of baby powder in the US after health regulators found trace amounts of asbestos in a bottle purchased online. Boeing has admitted that two of its employers in 2016 misled the FAA about the 737 Max and its technical system. Weaker than expected Chinese economic indicators also contributes to the negative...
Read more