Summary for the 28th of January 2019


On Friday, The US President signs a bill to reopen the government after 35 days with government shutdown. The bill will fund the government for three weeks while the parties are trying to come to an agreement on the issue of border security. This leads to about 800 000 federal workers temporarily back to work. President Trump hasn’t managed to gather enough support for the funding of a border-wall, but says that he is prepared for another shutdown if necessary, and that the possibility for him to exercise his power to declare national emergency is also still on the table. The stall in budget talk is a clear reminder of President Trump losing the majority in the Senate at the midterm election last year. This will make it difficult for him of getting his future policies approved.

The market in the EU area has had a weak end last year due to temporarily factors, most analysts are expecting a gain in the market on the first half of 2019. The IFO Business Climate Index fell 1.9 points to 99.1 in January, the lowest reading since February 2016 and below market expectation of 100.6, and the business outlook dropped to 94.2 from 97.3, the weakest since 2012.

Important highlights will be released this week: another Brexit vote on Tuesday, the British parliament will be voting for Theresa May’s plan B of Brexit. The plan is similar to plan A with inputs from the parliament members. Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be held on Wednesday, most analysts don’t expect a change in the federal funds rate, and that the Fed will keep the same economic outlook, but with an expectation of higher risks.

The political situation in Venezuela is still uncertain. The generals and the security forces have pledged their loyalties to the president Nicolás Maduro. The opposition leader, Juan Guaidó has promised the security forces amnesty if they break with President Nicolás Maduro.

Indices on 25th and 28th   of January. US stock market closed in the green on Friday after the government shutdown was temporarily over. The lower than expected earnings from Chinese companies have made the Chinese indices end in red.

Dow: +0.8% (25th)
S&P 500: +0.9% (25th )
Nasdaq: +1.3% (25th)
Nikkei: -0.6% (28th)
Chinese indices: -0.4% (28th)
STOXX Europe 600 Index: -0.97% (28th)

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